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What exactly happened in Russia on Saturday?
Like just about everyone else on the planet, I’m trying to get my head around the short-lived insurrection of Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
There was a frenetic pace to events – Prigozhin’s taking of a key military command center in Rostov-on-Don, seven aircraft shot down, Prigozhin’s troops rushing up the highway toward Moscow, Putin loyalists digging up roads and taking other hasty defensive measures around the capital, Putin reportedly fleeing…
And then, just like that, it was all finished. There was apparently a deal. Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus. That’s it, everyone, put the popcorn down. The show’s over.
This morning, analysts are still scratching their heads, suspecting the danger is not quite over yet. Speculation is rampant, and misinformation is rife worldwide.
China’s state-controlled media said divisions in Russian leadership are an “illusion,” which makes you recall George Orwell’s words in 1984: “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
My colleagues and I were following events closely on Saturday. We put together a statement expressing HRW’s concern for what the rapidly growing rift between Russia’s Defense Ministry and the Wagner mercenary group would mean for the general population in Russia. Neither side could, by any stretch of the imagination, be called “the good guys” in this fight.
This was the key point for us: both sides have committed recent atrocities. Russian forces in Ukraine and Syria, and Wagner forces in Ukraine, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Were we about to start seeing similar abuses in Russia, too?
That seems to be averted for now, but given how quickly events keep changing, it’s a concern that cannot be dismissed entirely. Nor can fears about even deeper repression in paranoid Putin’s Russia – which is horrible enough already – in the wake of the aborted insurrection.
Through all the confusion and rapid turnarounds of the weekend’s events, it seems only one thing has remained constant: Russian forces are still slaughtering people in Ukraine. A Russian missile attack on an apartment building in Kyiv on Saturday killed three people and injured eight.